Chapter 127: Stockpiling Land—Will It Bring Him the Success He Hopes For?
Based on the current market trend, if everything proceeds smoothly and there are no major unexpected disruptions, international crude oil prices are expected to reach the range of $27 to $28 per barrel by late May to early June.
At that point, Lin Haoran will be able to seize the opportunity and decisively sell his holdings to realize his expected profits.
After completing this round of operations in the oil market, he will take his accumulated wealth, adjust his investment strategy flexibly, and shift his focus to the gold futures market.
In the office of Global Shipping Group inside Prince's Building in Central, Pao Yue-kong had just finished a long-distance phone call. The voice on the other end had come from Japan.
After hanging up, an unmistakable look of helplessness appeared on his face once again.
As a shipping magnate and the world's largest shipowner, Pao Yue-kong's business empire spanned six continents, with clients all over the world. This made him a bridge that many people sought out for help and cooperation.
In particular, because of his deep relationships with several oil-exporting countries, many buyers eager to purchase oil but unable to obtain priority access turned to him, hoping to use his connections to achieve their goals.
At first, Pao Yue-kong was still able to help a handful of people, using his network to secure early oil purchase opportunities for them.
However, as similar requests surged over the past month to more than a dozen people, even he found himself overwhelmed.
After all, no matter how influential someone is, they cannot satisfy everyone's demands indefinitely.
So after managing to help two clients obtain what they needed, Pao Yue-kong had no choice but to make the difficult decision to decline all subsequent requests of the same kind.
He understood that helping beyond his own capabilities was not only unsustainable but could also damage his long-term relationships with his partners.
Therefore, despite his reluctance, he chose to stick to his principles and stop involving himself in such thankless efforts.
Previously, it was through Pao Yue-kong's extensive network that Lin Haoran had successfully purchased a large quantity of crude oil from Saudi Aramco before the market crisis began to emerge.
Pao Yue-kong was well aware that Lin Haoran held considerable crude oil reserves.
Because of this, Pao Yue-kong had initially taken the initiative to call Lin Haoran and ask whether he intended to sell his oil.
However, after learning that Lin Haoran planned to make a decision in early June, Pao Yue-kong respected his choice and never brought up the matter again.
He understood that every investor had unique market insights and plans, and investment decisions were often based on complex analysis and personal judgment.
Therefore, despite Pao Yue-kong's tremendous influence in the business world, he knew he had no right to interfere with or change someone else's investment strategy.
Since December, Pao Yue-kong had been closely monitoring developments in the international crude oil market, especially fluctuations in oil prices.
He had originally expected prices to rise for a while before returning to normal levels. Unexpectedly, instead of falling, oil prices displayed astonishing resilience, continuing to climb with increasing momentum, soaring from just over $12 per barrel to more than $25 today.
Every time he checked the price, Pao Yue-kong could not help but sigh, even feeling a trace of regret.
Looking back half a year earlier, when Lin Haoran had enthusiastically consulted him about investing in crude oil, Pao Yue-kong had actually been skeptical.
In his view, although Lin Haoran's idea was bold, it was also overly simplistic, overlooking the complexity and high risks behind the crude oil market.
Yet the subsequent price movement forced him to reevaluate his own judgment and gave him a new appreciation for Lin Haoran's vision and courage.
He clearly remembered Lin Haoran's confident and passionate words as he left the Pao residence:
"Uncle Bao, if you're interested in increasing your returns, this oil investment opportunity really shouldn't be missed. Although there are certain risks, I believe the risk-to-reward ratio is extremely attractive.
Even if the oil crisis doesn't break out, our losses will amount to little more than transfer and storage costs. But if the crisis does occur, the returns could multiply several times over. So I think this is a risk worth taking."
Every time oil prices climbed another step, those words echoed once more in Pao Yue-kong's mind.
In just half a year, oil prices had doubled!
Such an enormously profitable opportunity had slipped right through his fingers.
Under normal circumstances, an investment that doubled in six months was something one might not encounter for a very long time.
It made him feel deep regret.
More importantly, judging from the current oil market, doubling was clearly far from the end of the price increase.
This reminded Pao Yue-kong of the oil crisis five or six years earlier.
From $2.95 per barrel in January 1973 to over $13 per barrel in 1974—a full fourfold increase!
Moreover, crude oil prices never returned to their pre-1973 levels afterward, remaining above $10 per barrel ever since.
So this time, could prices rise fourfold again like during the first oil crisis?
Pao Yue-kong didn't know.
But he did know that if oil prices continued climbing like this, doubling was absolutely no problem.
Thus, the higher oil prices rose, the more he felt he had missed out.
He had always been in the shipping business. Although the scale was enormous, the profit margins were actually quite low.
Combined with the large number of competitors and severe overcapacity in the industry, the entire shipping sector had become fiercely competitive.
In Pao Yue-kong's view, a downturn in shipping was only a matter of time.
That was why he had begun considering shifting the focus of his investments from the sea to the land.
And Wharf Holdings was the first step in his transition from ships to land.
He still felt some regret over missing the oil crisis opportunity.
At present, he was locked in a prolonged battle with Jardine Matheson over increasing his stake in Wharf Holdings, and he had no idea when the outcome would be decided.
Therefore, investing in oil could only remain a regret, because he dared not withdraw funds to invest elsewhere.
Until he secured control of Wharf Holdings, his capital would remain tied up.
From their brief first conversation, to the bloodless acquisition of Qingzhou Yingni, to stockpiling oil, to taking Qingzhou Yingni private...
Every move Lin Haoran made astonished Pao Yue-kong.
Were these really the actions of a young man? It was simply unbelievable.
Lin Haoran was definitely no ordinary person. His future was destined to attract worldwide attention.
As a result, Pao Yue-kong paid increasing attention to Lin Haoran's movements.
However, ever since five British men accused Lin Haoran of coercing them into privatizing the company, the young man seemed to have become much more low-key. His actions grew increasingly mysterious, and there were rarely any news reports about him afterward.
Unable to resist any longer, Pao Yue-kong finally used his intelligence network to investigate Lin Haoran's recent activities.
Sitting in his office, Pao Yue-kong looked at the report in his hands.
It was the information his subordinates had gathered.
"So his next plan is to stockpile land?" Pao Yue-kong frowned as he read the report.
Given Pao Yue-kong's status in the business world, he naturally possessed extremely powerful intelligence channels.
Although Lin Haoran had kept a low profile recently, anyone determined to investigate could still easily uncover his movements.
The findings surprised Pao Yue-kong.
He had never expected Lin Haoran to purchase multiple plots of land one after another.
Buying land so frequently was obviously not for immediate development. Otherwise, Wan'an Group's construction teams simply wouldn't be able to handle it. That left only one obvious purpose: land banking.
Pao Yue-kong was naturally optimistic about the real estate industry as well; otherwise, he would never have set his sights on Wharf Holdings.
However, given Lin Haoran's current financial strength, land banking was clearly unsuitable for him. After all, Wan'an Group's funding this time had all come from loans that would eventually have to be repaid.
Unless he intended to make short-term trades by buying land and selling it within a relatively short period—perhaps six months, or maybe one or two years.
As for holding it long-term, that simply wasn't something Lin Haoran's financial resources could support.
"This young man has displayed extraordinary vision before. Every move he made was astonishing. But this time, with land banking... will it really bring him another great success?" Pao Yue-kong suddenly became curious.
As one of Hong Kong's business tycoons, he naturally understood that since last year—and especially this year—Hong Kong's housing prices had skyrocketed irrationally.
Pao Yue-kong could clearly see that rampant property speculation was continuously driving up land and housing prices, gradually pushing them beyond what ordinary Hong Kong residents could realistically afford.
When consumers' wages lagged far behind the pace of housing price increases, a decline in property prices would become inevitable, with a high probability of triggering a disastrous real estate crisis.
Therefore, he remained cautious about Hong Kong's property market.
Although Pao Yue-kong was not in the real estate business himself, many of his close friends in the business world were major property developers, such as Li Ka-shing.
He had discussed this topic with Li Ka-shing before.
Even Li Ka-shing believed that a real estate crisis would emerge before long, because housing prices had risen to an utterly absurd level, completely detached from reality.
Of course, for people like Li Ka-shing, this was actually good news.
He had built his fortune by gradually accumulating wealth through land banking and holding properties. Whether housing prices soared or crashed, he could accept either outcome.
If prices continued to surge, the land and buildings they owned would become even more valuable.
If prices collapsed, they would seize the opportunity to buy large amounts of cheap land and properties, waiting for the real estate industry to flourish again. When that happened, the value of their holdings would soar once more.
That was the advantage of players with abundant cash flow.
Because of those conversations with Li Ka-shing, Pao Yue-kong firmly believed that Hong Kong's real estate industry would eventually contract.
That made him even more curious whether Lin Haoran's latest move would once again replicate his previous successes.
(End of Chapter)
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